Posted on January 13, 2010.
"China calls time on dollar hegemony," What is happening 2 dollar as reserve currency? Fed Do not audited yet? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china ...
"You can date the end of dollar hegemony of China's decision last month to sell its first batch of sovereign bonds in Chinese yuan for foreigners.
Beijing does not need to raise funds abroad since he was 2 billion dollars (£ 1.26 trillion) in reserves. The sole purpose is to prepare the way for the emergence of the yuan as currency in its own world.
"It's the ringing of the bell," said Michael Power of Investec Asset Management. "We are just beginning to grasp the enormity and historical significance of what happened."
This change in China and other parts of the rise in Asia and Latin America that threatens the dominance of the dollar, not the price of oil contracts. Markets were shaken yesterday by reports - since denied - that China, France, Japan, Russia and the Gulf states have conspired to replace the greenback as the currency for sales of commodities, but it is little difference whether oil is sold in dollars, euros, or Venetian ducats.
What matters is where the oil producers of OPEC and rising powers to export choose to invest their surpluses. If they stop turning that wealth into U.S. Treasuries, mortgage bonds and other U.S. assets, the dollar should weaken over time.
"Everyone in the world is massively overweight the U.S. dollar," said David Bloom, director of currency at HSBC. "As they invest a little here and there in some other currencies, or gold, it slowly eroding the dollar. It's like the British pound after the First World War. Everyone can see that happens. "
"In the U.S., they have almost zero rates, external deficits and public debt rocketed to 100pc of GDP, and in addition they are printing money. It is the storm perfect for the dollar, "he said.
"The dollar rallied last year because we had a global liquidity crisis, but we believe that the rules have changed and it will be very different this time [if] another market sell-off has he said.
The mechanism of self-correction in the global monetary system has been blocked so far because China and other Asian powers have been keeping their currencies to promote exports. The Gulf oil-producing countries are most often pegged to the dollar, for different reasons.
This strategy became untenable. It leads them to import U.S. monetary policy is too loose for their economies and could fuel the bubbles as the unstable global economic recovery.
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a board member of the European Central Bank, said China needs to bite a bullet. "I think the best way is that China began to adopt its own monetary policy and detach from the Fed's policy."
Austrian economists have warned for years that at some point, creditors are tired of carrying the debtor and be skeptical of the value of the debt they buy.
I think the refusal of the program to start buying oil in currencies other than dollars is misleading. I think they will start doing that as soon as early next year. This would mean the end of the U.S. economy. For almost a century, the petrodollar is the thing that has kept the value of our dollar. Without it, all the chickens come to roost instantly, and the value will rise as a rock.
That said, one reason I think this may not happen is because it would devalue as bad debt that we owe China, which would cause a real loss. And their economy is based on our consumption.
Time will tell.